Critical
Thinking
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Critical |
Pregnancy Poses Danger."
The new Department of Health and Human Services report suggested that the United States was "grossly underestimating" the number of women who die during childbirth, and that in 1990 "the actual rate of mortality for mothers was close to 23.5 women per 100,000 live births, compared with 10 deaths per 100,000 as reported by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention." How could the federal statistics be so far off the mark? As usual, "undercounting" was the alleged problem. The fix: apply an undercounting "corrective" to a representative data sample, and then extrapolate the result onto the general population. So what representative sample of the U.S. population did the researchers choose? A major city, like Chicago? A diverse state, like California? How about . . . France.
Children's Health Dangers
A recent Harvard School of Public Health survey asked parents to name the "most important health problems children in America face today." AIDS came in first, named by 23% of respondents, followed by other infectious diseases (17%), drugs (15%),
smoking (11%) and cancer (10%). fewer than 1% named accidents as a serious health risk. This is a curious ranking, given the health risks that American children actually face. The Post article notes that "smoking, the leading preventable cause of illness in all Americans," ranks relatively low, but more surprising is the degree to which Americans misunderstand the risks posed by less "glamorous" threats like accidents. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, in 1994, 381 children under the age of 15 died of AIDS, 891 died of cancer, and 6,025 died in accidents.
Similarly, a recent survey from the American Heart Association demonstrated that American women consistently perceive cancer, particularly breast cancer, to be their number one health risk. 61% of women in the survey asserted that cancer was their greatest health threat, with 34% specifically citing breast cancer, while only 8% named cardiovascular disease or stroke. Heart disease and stroke are responsible for the deaths of over 500,000 American women every year, breast cancer 44,000.
Exaggerating the risks of secondhand smoke
Secondhand smoke undoubtedly aggravates asthma, allergies and other respiratory conditions. But can it really increase your risk of death from heart disease and lung cancer - or have these fears been overblown?
A recent study published in the British Medical Journal followed over 35,000 non-smoking spouses of smokers from 1959 -1998. The authors found no significant increase in risk of death.
May 17 issue of the British Medical Journal
Anti-tobacco groups claim that passive smoke exposure increases cancer risk by 20 percent and heart disease risk by 30 percent. While that sounds like a large increase, most epidemiologists don't consider risk factors particularly worrisome until they get to about 200 percent. Smoking a pack of cigarettes a day increases risk for all cancers by 200 percent, lung cancer by 1000 percent and heart disease 300-400 percent. Smoking two or more packs a day increases lung cancer risk by a factor of 15-25 (i.e., by 1500 percent to 2500 percent). In looking at research on any substance, it's important to keep in mind that dosage counts.
Oddly, though the smoking ban in bars in New York is based on the idea that passive smoke exposure is risky to employees, the new study wasn't covered by the pro-ban New York Post, nor by the Daily News or New York Times. Only Newsday ran an item covering the controversy.
For more see www.stats.org